The Institute of Strategic and Analytical Studies of East Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus
The Institute of Strategic and Analytical Studies of East Europe, Central Asia, and Caucasus has researchers in countries of East Europe, Central Asia, and Caucasus.
The large analysis by Mr. Karbalevich* (with my version) --- THE VERDICT for the DICTATOR LUKASHENKO
2015 year - Dictator Lukashenko said: “NEVER!”
"And most importantly, if we talk about your conceptual suggestions - I do not want to create a bourgeois or bourgeois-democratic society, that will have the gap between rich, read, our businessmen, entrepreneurs, maybe some officials (bureaucrats) and so on, against the ordinary people . It is this chasm that will necessarily lead to the scandal, as a minimum. At most, we will have the revolution (we had it )
The society will have the destabilisation, and maybe even earlier, we will repeat the Ukrainian version "--- said the dictator to his premier-minister.
Why “NEVER”
1).The syndrome “Gorbacev reforms’
Gorbachev, he started the transformation for the democracy for the effective system of USSR, but the result was the destruction of USSR.
The President Eltsin , after the democratic reforms ( for the market economy) had the minimal support by Russian peoples.
2) Market reforms need the large economic freedom. But the economic freedoms open the civil freedoms yet. It is the big danger for the dictatorship.
Market reforms require expansion of the economic freedom.
This increases public areas that are beyond the government control, and that maybe result the demands for the political changes. It can start a chain reaction, which he, the DICTATOR, will not be able to control.
3)
The result of the market economy reforms in Russia and Ukraine demonstrated:
we see a new class- -- oligarchs , they , very rich men start the their influence to the state policy. They construct the politic parties, their fraction in the parliament, their private media ….. Oligarchs take the power!
The dictator Lukakasheno doesn’t wishes , cannot ( with his psychology) gives his power to anybody. The life of Lukashenko is the power absolute . We see it with 21 years.
4)
If Lukashenko will start reforms, he admits the truth of the political opposition. And there is a logical question: why do you, the DICTATOR, 21 years, led the country in the wrong direction?
5) Market reforms require changes of the image of Lukashenko (his ideological picture).
It will be necessary to change the ideological paradigm, change the idea of “The order and The stability “ to “the developing idea” (the real modernisation) , to change the image of “The conservator and The guardian of the old system´ - to the image of “the modernizer”. But it is same the medicine sex change operation!
6)
He must be change his electorate! ( for reforms)
Today (and before) he has his main and reliable social support by social outsiders, that is the people who are not able to fit into a market economy. Pensioners, the rural population, workers of state enterprises….. It was the electorate of the dictator for 20 years.
Thenewelectorate ( an youth, the small business, the national intelligence persons, etc. ) will not support the dictator. But the old electorate will not support the dictator after reforms more.
The general conclusion: The dictatot Lukashenko cannot lives without the “ the hand direction” ,( without the power absolute) for all and for everybody.
Lukashenko life is the power absolute or the death!
Dr.Valery Hrytsuk, analyst (* Mr.Karbalevich is the political observer of the independent media, Minsk ; the original text is in Belarusian)
P.S. I said about “Never” of Alexander Lukashenko at 1994, but my opinion has been published at 2003 with HDIM OSCE.
BELARUSwill not have the Democratisation at the dictator of Lukashenko. He afraid anyDemocratisation.
The opinion of Lukashenko about the democracy and Human Rights in his speech at 23 April 2009.
Lukashenko said -- There is not the Democratisation. It is VERY ENOUGH.
"We have the democracy very enough."
"Политической либерализации у нас предостаточно"
Therefore this a crawl counterrevolution will not comingin Belarus.
Поэтому вот эта «ползучая контрреволюция», говоря старым языком, в Беларуси не пройдет.
The dictator afraid the word "Democratisation" he has said " political liberalisation" Lukashenko said about "political liberalisation"that it is be very enough.
But first of all Lukashenko said about the liberalisation of economic life.
Only with the dictator method!
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